Lesnar-Carwin redefines heavyweight

Preview by Brady Crytzer

It’s a like a scene from the Edward Norton remake of The Hulk. The massive Incredible Hulk charging full bore into the earth-shaking Abomination.

On Saturday, July 3 the biggest heavyweight MMA battle of all time will rattle the Vegas Strip as UFC World Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar takes on interim titlist Shane “The Monster” Carwin.

Since his debut in 2007, Lesnar has redefined the limits of the heavyweight division with his massive size and stand out speed. However the 6’3, 265 lb. Carwin will be looking to continue his unbeaten streak of brutality en route to taking the heavyweight crown. He has never gone out the first round, and he doesn’t It’s the universally regarded number one heavyweight in the world taking on the unbeaten 12-0 (12 KO’s) challenger. It doesn’t get much bigger (or better) than this.

Striking: This gargantuan battle will be fought on the feet, at least initially. Although we’ve seen the champ connect with crushing blows in the past, there is no doubt that the challenger Carwin get the edge in this stanza. Following his UFC 111 bout with Frank Mir there is no doubt about it…Carwin is the hardest pure puncher in the sport of mixed martial arts. His boxing is not fundamentally sound and there are certainly faster foes, but Carwin has proved time and again that one punch can and will put his opponents to sleep. Lesnar sent Heath Herring flying across the cage with a single right hand and dropped Randy Couture with an elbow, but neither blow instantly stopped either fight. Carwin however has used his warhammer to stop Christian Wellisch, Gabriel Gonzaga, and most recently Frank Mir cold in their tracks. The result? Heaps of heavyweight dreams left crumpled and unconscious on the canvas.

Carwin does not have a speed edge on the feet in this fight, but his top tier raw, brutal power makes him stand head and shoulder above any other heavyweight in the world when it comes to striking.

Grappling: The stand up analysis is fun, but the grappling portion will be the difference maker. Both men are collegiate wrestling stand outs, however there are few heavyweights in the world that can match Brock Lesnar’s NCAA trophy case. A massive heavyweight with middleweight speed, Lesnar uses his natural size advantages and strong fundamentals of control to manipulate opponents into fortuitous positions. From there the onslaught begins in the form of devastating ground n’ pound. Carwin too was a collegiate star, however his All-American status at the Division II level doesn’t match up with Lesnar’s Division I National Championship. In live MMA combat we have seen Lesnar rely on his grappling gifts to become the heavyweight champion of the world in just four fights. Carwin’s affinity for the stand up has kept his wrestling largely hidden from view.

Lesnar will have a surprisingly large grappling advantage that will reveal itself in his ability to score takedowns against the challenger.

How They Match Up: The gameplan for Carwin is simple: knock out Brock. He has shown that it only takes a few short blows to stun an opponent, and one fully extended right cross to flatten them. Carwin can win this fight while Lesnar tries to close the distance.

If Brock does close that distance…get ready.

Lesnar knows that Carwin is strong and possesses devastating dirty boxing, so the champion will not want to jockey for position against the fence. Mir tried and was promptly KO’ed.

Gonzaga was able to take Carwin to the mat rather easily in their 2008 bout, so Brock will NEED to establish his wrestling dominance by taking Carwin down in the center of the cage. Once on top he can do what he does best.

The Intangibles: Lesnar is coming off of a life-threatening injury. We have never seen him fight coming off of a layoff, and Carwin is an extraordinarily dangerous opponent to do so against. If Carwin has a chance to win this fight…the time is most certainly now.

The prediction is as follows: Lesnar is said to be at 100% for this bout, and if that is the case he will win by employing the method that I have outlined above. However, if he has lost a step (particularly in his rhinoceros-style spearing takedown) Carwin will end this show.

After all, the man is 12-0 with 12 knockouts…it’s all he knows how to do.

Lesnar by ground n’ pound TKO in round two.